Daga shekarar 2021 zuwa 2022, an samu ci gaba mai sauri a kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya saboda bullar buƙatu na musamman sakamakon barkewar cutar COVID-19. Duk da haka, yayin da buƙatu na musamman da annobar COVID-19 ta haifar suka ƙare a ƙarshen rabin shekarar 2022 kuma suka faɗa cikin ɗaya daga cikin mawuyacin halin koma bayan tattalin arziki a tarihi a shekarar 2023.
Duk da haka, ana sa ran Babban koma bayan tattalin arziki zai ragu a shekarar 2023, inda ake sa ran samun cikakken farfadowa a wannan shekarar (2024).
A gaskiya ma, idan aka duba jigilar kayayyaki na semiconductor na kwata-kwata a nau'ikan daban-daban, Logic ya riga ya wuce kololuwar da buƙatun musamman na COVID-19 suka haifar kuma ya kafa sabon matsayi na tarihi. Bugu da ƙari, Mos Micro da Analog za su iya kaiwa ga matsayi na tarihi a cikin 2024, saboda raguwar da ƙarshen buƙatun musamman na COVID-19 ya haifar ba ta da mahimmanci (Hoto na 1).
Daga cikinsu, Mos Memory ta fuskanci koma baya sosai, sannan ta faɗi ƙasa a kwata na farko (kwata na 1) na 2023 ta fara tafiyarta zuwa murmurewa. Duk da haka, da alama har yanzu tana buƙatar lokaci mai tsawo don isa ga kololuwar buƙatun musamman na COVID-19. Duk da haka, idan Mos Memory ta wuce kololuwarta, jimillar jigilar kayayyaki na semiconductor ba shakka za ta kai wani sabon matsayi na tarihi. A ganina, idan hakan ta faru, za a iya cewa kasuwar semiconductor ta farfaɗo gaba ɗaya.
Duk da haka, idan aka duba canje-canjen da aka samu a jigilar kayayyaki na semiconductor, a bayyane yake cewa wannan ra'ayi kuskure ne. Wannan saboda, yayin da jigilar kayayyaki na Mos Memory, wanda ke cikin murmurewa, ya dawo da yawa, jigilar kayayyaki na Logic, waɗanda suka kai matsayi mafi girma a tarihi, har yanzu suna cikin ƙananan matakai. A wata ma'anar, don farfaɗo da kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya, jigilar kayayyaki na sassan dabaru dole ne su ƙaru sosai.
Saboda haka, a cikin wannan labarin, za mu yi nazarin jigilar kayayyaki na semiconductor da adadi na nau'ikan semiconductor daban-daban da jimillar semiconductors. Na gaba, za mu yi amfani da bambanci tsakanin jigilar kayayyaki na Logic da jigilar kayayyaki a matsayin misali don nuna yadda jigilar kayayyaki na TSMC na wafers ke raguwa duk da saurin murmurewa. Bugu da ƙari, za mu yi hasashe kan dalilin da ya sa wannan bambanci ya wanzu kuma mu ba da shawarar cewa cikakken murmurewa na kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya na iya jinkirta har zuwa 2025.
A ƙarshe, bayyanar da kasuwar semiconductor ke yi a yanzu "mafarki" ne da GPUs na NVIDIA suka haifar, waɗanda ke da tsada sosai. Saboda haka, da alama kasuwar semiconductor ba za ta murmure gaba ɗaya ba har sai masana'antun ƙarfe kamar TSMC sun kai ga cikakken ƙarfin aiki kuma jigilar kayayyaki na Logic sun kai sabon matsayi na tarihi.
Darajar jigilar kayayyaki da kuma nazarin adadi na Semiconductor
Siffa ta 2 ta nuna yanayin da ake ciki a cikin darajar jigilar kaya da adadi ga nau'ikan semiconductor daban-daban da kuma kasuwar semiconductor gaba ɗaya.
Yawan jigilar kaya na Mos Micro ya kai kololuwa a kwata na huɗu na 2021, ya ragu a kwata na farko na 2023, kuma ya fara murmurewa. A gefe guda kuma, adadin jigilar kaya bai nuna wani babban canji ba, wanda ya kasance kusan daidai daga kwata na uku zuwa na huɗu na 2023, tare da ɗan raguwa.
Darajar jigilar kayayyaki ta Mos Memory ta fara raguwa sosai daga kwata na biyu na 2022, ta faɗi ƙasa a kwata na farko na 2023, kuma ta fara ƙaruwa, amma ta dawo da kusan kashi 40% kawai na ƙimar mafi girma a kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar. A halin yanzu, adadin jigilar kayayyaki ya dawo zuwa kusan kashi 94% na matakin mafi girma. A wata ma'anar, ana ɗaukar ƙimar amfani da masana'antar masana'antun ƙwaƙwalwa a matsayin cikakken ƙarfin aiki. Tambayar ita ce nawa farashin DRAM da NAND flash zai ƙaru.
Adadin jigilar kaya na Logic ya kai kololuwa a kwata na biyu na 2022, ya ragu a kwata na farko na 2023, sannan ya sake farfadowa, inda ya kai sabon matsayi na tarihi a kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar. A gefe guda kuma, darajar jigilar kaya ta kai kololuwa a kwata na biyu na 2022, sannan ta ragu zuwa kusan kashi 65% na ƙimar kololuwa a kwata na uku na 2023 kuma ta ci gaba da kasancewa ba ta da tabbas a kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar. A wata ma'anar, akwai babban bambanci tsakanin halayen ƙimar jigilar kaya da adadin jigilar kaya a cikin Logic.
Adadin jigilar kayayyaki ta analog ya kai kololuwa a kwata na uku na 2022, ya ragu a kwata na biyu na 2023, kuma tun daga lokacin ya kasance daidai. A gefe guda kuma, bayan ya kai kololuwa a kwata na uku na 2022, ƙimar jigilar kayayyaki ta ci gaba da raguwa har zuwa kwata na huɗu na 2023.
A ƙarshe, jimlar ƙimar jigilar kayayyaki ta semiconductor ta ragu sosai daga kwata na biyu na 2022, ta faɗi ƙasa a kwata na farko na 2023, kuma ta fara ƙaruwa, tana murmurewa zuwa kusan kashi 96% na ƙimar kololuwar a kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar. A gefe guda kuma, adadin jigilar kayayyaki ya ragu sosai daga kwata na biyu na 2022, wanda ya faɗi ƙasa a kwata na farko na 2023, amma tun daga lokacin ya kasance daidai, kusan kashi 75% na ƙimar kololuwar.
Daga abin da ke sama, da alama Mos Memory shine yankin da matsalar ta fi shafa idan aka yi la'akari da yawan jigilar kaya kawai, domin ya dawo da kusan kashi 40% na ƙimar kololuwar. Duk da haka, idan muka yi la'akari da faffadan ra'ayi, za mu iya ganin cewa Logic babban abin damuwa ne, domin duk da cewa ya kai matsayi mai girma a tarihi a yawan jigilar kaya, ƙimar jigilar kaya ta tsaya cak a kusan kashi 65% na ƙimar kololuwar. Tasirin wannan bambanci tsakanin adadin jigilar kaya da ƙimar Logic ya shafi dukkan filin semiconductor.
A taƙaice, farfaɗowar kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya ya dogara ne akan ko farashin Mos Memory ya ƙaru da kuma ko adadin jigilar na'urorin Logic ya ƙaru sosai. Tare da hauhawar farashin DRAM da NAND akai-akai, babbar matsala za ta kasance ƙara yawan jigilar na'urorin Logic.
Na gaba, za mu yi bayani game da yadda yawan jigilar kaya da kuma jigilar wafer na TSMC ke aiki domin mu nuna bambanci tsakanin yawan jigilar kaya na Logic da kuma jigilar wafer.
Darajar jigilar kaya ta TSMC ta kwata-kwata da jigilar wafer
Siffa ta 3 ta nuna yadda TSMC ta rarraba tallace-tallace ta hanyar node da kuma yanayin tallace-tallace na 7nm da sama da matakai a kwata na huɗu na 2023.
TSMC ta sanya 7nm zuwa sama a matsayin ci gaban nodes. A cikin kwata na huɗu na 2023, 7nm ya kai 17%, 5nm na 35%, da 3nm na 15%, jimilla 67% na ci gaban nodes. Bugu da ƙari, tallace-tallace na kwata na nodes na ci gaba sun ƙaru tun daga kwata na farko na 2021, sun sami raguwa sau ɗaya a kwata na huɗu na 2022, amma sun faɗi ƙasa kuma sun fara ƙaruwa a kwata na biyu na 2023, inda suka kai sabon matsayi na tarihi a kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar.
A wata ma'anar, idan ka duba yadda tallace-tallace na ci gaba ke gudana, TSMC tana aiki da kyau. To, yaya game da jimillar kudaden shiga na tallace-tallace na TSMC na kwata-kwata da jigilar kaya (Hoto na 4)?
Jadawalin darajar jigilar kaya ta TSMC kwata-kwata da jigilar wafer sun yi daidai da kusan daidai. Ya kai kololuwa a lokacin kumfa na IT na 2000, ya ragu bayan girgizar Lehman ta 2008, kuma ya ci gaba da raguwa bayan fashewar kumfa na ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya na 2018.
Duk da haka, halin da ake ciki bayan kololuwar buƙatar musamman a kwata na uku na 2022 ya bambanta. Darajar jigilar kaya ta kai dala biliyan 20.2, sannan ta ragu sosai amma ta fara farfadowa bayan ta faɗi zuwa dala biliyan 15.7 a kwata na biyu na 2023, inda ta kai dala biliyan 19.7 a kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar, wanda shine kashi 97% na ƙimar kololuwar.
A gefe guda kuma, jigilar wafer a kowace kwata ya kai kololuwar wafer miliyan 3.97 a kwata na uku na 2022, sannan ya faɗi ƙasa, ya faɗi zuwa wafer miliyan 2.92 a kwata na biyu na 2023, amma ya kasance ba tare da wata matsala ba daga baya. Ko da a kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar, kodayake adadin wafers da aka aika ya ragu sosai daga kololuwar, har yanzu ya kasance a wafer miliyan 2.96, raguwar wafers sama da miliyan 1 daga kololuwar.
Mafi yawan amfani da na'urorin semiconductor da TSMC ke samarwa shine Logic. Tallace-tallacen TSMC na na'urori masu ci gaba a kwata na huɗu na 2023 sun kai wani sabon matsayi na tarihi, inda jimillar tallace-tallace suka dawo zuwa kashi 97% na kololuwar tarihi. Duk da haka, jigilar wafer na kwata har yanzu ya fi ƙasa da wafer miliyan 1 ƙasa da lokacin kololuwar. A takaice dai, yawan amfani da masana'antar TSMC ya kai kusan kashi 75% kawai.
Dangane da kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya baki ɗaya, jigilar kayayyaki ta hanyar dabaru ta ragu zuwa kusan kashi 65% na kololuwar da aka samu a lokacin buƙatar COVID-19 na musamman. A ko da yaushe, jigilar kayayyaki ta TSMC ta kwata-kwata ta ragu da fiye da wafer miliyan 1 daga kololuwar, inda aka kiyasta cewa yawan amfani da masana'anta ya kai kusan kashi 75%.
Idan aka yi la'akari da gaba, domin kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya ta farfaɗo da gaske, jigilar kayayyaki na dabaru na buƙatar ƙaruwa sosai, kuma don cimma wannan, yawan amfani da masana'antun da TSMC ke jagoranta dole ne su kusanci cikakken ƙarfin aiki.
To, yaushe ne wannan zai faru?
Hasashen Yawan Amfani da Manyan Kamfanonin Gine-gine
A ranar 14 ga Disamba, 2023, kamfanin bincike na Taiwan TrendForce ya gudanar da taron karawa juna sani na "Bayanin Masana'antu Mai Mayar da Hankali" a Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. A taron karawa juna sani, mai sharhi kan TrendForce Joanna Chiao ta tattauna "Dabarun Duniya na TSMC da Hasashen Kasuwar Masana'antar Semiconductor na 2024." Daga cikin wasu batutuwa, Joanna Chiao ta yi magana game da hasashen yawan amfani da masana'antar (Hoto
Yaushe jigilar kayayyaki ta hanyar dabaru za ta ƙaru?
Shin wannan kashi 8% yana da muhimmanci ko kuma ba shi da muhimmanci? Duk da cewa wannan tambaya ce mai sauƙi, har zuwa shekarar 2026, sauran kashi 92% na wafers za su ci gaba da amfani da kwakwalwan semiconductor marasa AI. Yawancin waɗannan za su kasance kwakwalwan Logic. Saboda haka, domin jigilar Logic ta ƙaru da kuma manyan masana'antun da TSMC ke jagoranta su kai ga cikakken ƙarfin aiki, buƙatar na'urorin lantarki kamar wayoyin komai da ruwanka, kwamfutoci, da sabar dole ne su ƙaru.
A taƙaice, bisa ga halin da ake ciki a yanzu, ban yarda cewa na'urorin haɗin gwiwar AI kamar GPU na NVIDIA za su zama masu cetonmu ba. Saboda haka, ana kyautata zaton kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya ba za ta murmure gaba ɗaya ba har zuwa 2024, ko ma a jinkirta ta har zuwa 2025.
Duk da haka, akwai wata dama (mai kyakkyawan fata) da za ta iya kawar da wannan hasashen.
Zuwa yanzu, duk na'urorin AI da aka bayyana suna magana ne game da na'urorin semiconductors da aka sanya a cikin sabar. Duk da haka, yanzu akwai yanayin aiwatar da AI a kan tashoshi (gefuna) kamar kwamfutocin mutum, wayoyin komai da ruwanka, da kwamfutar hannu.
Misalai sun haɗa da ƙirar Intel ta AI PC da Samsung ke shirin yi da kuma yunƙurin ƙirƙirar wayoyin salula na AI. Idan waɗannan suka shahara (a wata ma'anar, idan aka sami ƙirƙira), kasuwar semiconductor ta AI za ta faɗaɗa cikin sauri. A gaskiya ma, kamfanin bincike na Amurka Gartner ya yi hasashen cewa nan da ƙarshen 2024, jigilar wayoyin salula na AI za su kai raka'a miliyan 240, kuma jigilar kwamfutocin AI za su kai raka'a miliyan 54.5 (don tunani kawai). Idan wannan hasashen ya cika, buƙatar fasahar zamani za ta ƙaru (dangane da ƙimar jigilar kaya da yawa), kuma ƙimar amfani da kamfanonin samar da kayayyaki kamar TSMC za ta ƙaru. Bugu da ƙari, buƙatar MPUs da ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya suma tabbas za su ƙaru da sauri.
A wata ma'anar, idan irin wannan duniya ta zo, ya kamata na'urorin haɗin gwiwar AI su zama masu ceto na gaske. Saboda haka, daga yanzu, ina so in mayar da hankali kan yanayin na'urorin haɗin gwiwar AI.
Lokacin Saƙo: Afrilu-08-2024