A ranar Laraba, Shugaba Biden ya ba da sanarwar wata yarjejeniya don baiwa Intel dala biliyan 8.5 a cikin kudade kai tsaye da kuma dala biliyan 11 a cikin lamuni a karkashin dokar CHIPS da Kimiyya.Intel za ta yi amfani da wannan tallafin don kayan aikin wafer a Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico, da Oregon.Kamar yadda aka ruwaito a cikin wasiƙarmu ta Disamba 2023, Dokar CHIPS tana ba da jimillar dala biliyan 52.7 a cikin tallafi ga masana'antar sarrafa kwamitocin Amurka, gami da dala biliyan 39 a cikin abubuwan haɓaka masana'antu.Kafin rarrabawar Intel, Dokar CHIPS ta riga ta keɓe jimillar dala biliyan 1.7 ga GlobalFoundries, Fasahar Microchip, da Tsarin BAE, a cewar Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta Semiconductor (SIA).
Ci gaban kuɗi a ƙarƙashin Dokar CHIPS ya kasance yana tafiyar hawainiya, tare da sanar da kashi na farko sama da shekara guda bayan zartar da shi.Saboda jinkirin fitar da kuɗaɗen, an jinkirta wasu manyan ayyuka na masana'antar kere kere a Amurka.TSMC ta kuma lura da matsaloli wajen neman ƙwararrun ma’aikatan gine-gine.Intel ya dangana jinkirin wani bangare ga raguwar tallace-tallace.
Wasu ƙasashe kuma sun ware kudade don haɓaka samar da na'urorin sarrafa na'urori.A cikin Satumba 2023, Tarayyar Turai ta zartar da Dokar Chips ta Turai, wacce ta kayyade € 430 biliyan (kimanin dala biliyan 470) a cikin saka hannun jari na jama'a da masu zaman kansu don masana'antar semiconductor.A cikin Nuwamba 2023, Japan ta ware ¥ 2 tiriliyan (kimanin dala biliyan 13) don masana'antar semiconductor.Taiwan ta samar da doka a cikin Janairu 2024 don ba da gudummawar haraji ga kamfanonin semiconductor.A cikin Maris 2023, Koriya ta Kudu ta zartar da wani doka don samar da abubuwan ƙarfafa haraji don dabarun dabarun fasaha, gami da semiconductor.Ana sa ran kasar Sin za ta kafa wani asusu na dalar Amurka biliyan 40 da gwamnati za ta tallafa don tallafawa masana'antunta na semiconductor.
Menene tsammanin kashe kuɗin masana'antar semiconductor (CapEx) a wannan shekara?Dokar CHIPS tana nufin haɓaka kashe kuɗi na babban birnin, amma yawancin tasirin ba zai bayyana ba har sai bayan 2024. A bara, kasuwar semiconductor ta rashin jin daɗi ta ƙi da 8.2%, wanda ke jagorantar kamfanoni da yawa don ɗaukar tsarin kula da kashe kuɗi a cikin 2024. Mun kiyasta cewa jimlar semiconductor CapEx a cikin 2023 shine dala biliyan 169, raguwar 7% daga 2022. Muna hasashen raguwar 2% a CapEx don 2024.
Tare da dawo da kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya da kuma karuwar da ake sa ran daga sababbin aikace-aikace irin su basirar wucin gadi, ana sa ran manyan kamfanonin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya za su kara yawan kudaden da ake kashewa a cikin 2024. Samsung yana shirin kula da kashe kuɗi kaɗan a cikin 2024 akan dala biliyan 37 amma bai yanke babban birnin ba. Kashewa a cikin 2023. Fasahar Micron da SK Hynix sun rage yawan kashe kuɗi a cikin 2023 da shirin haɓaka lambobi biyu a cikin 2024.
Babban kamfani, TSMC, yana shirin kashe kusan dala biliyan 28 zuwa dala biliyan 32 a cikin 2024, tare da matsakaicin dala biliyan 30, raguwar 6% daga 2023. SMIC yana shirin kula da kashe kudaden babban gida, yayin da UMC ke shirin haɓaka da 10%.GlobalFoundries yana tsammanin raguwar 61% na babban kashe kudi a cikin 2024 amma zai haɓaka kashe kuɗi a cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa tare da gina sabon fab a Malta, New York.
Daga cikin Masana'antun Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs), Intel na shirin kara yawan kashe kudi da kashi 2% a shekarar 2024 zuwa dala biliyan 26.2.Intel zai ƙara ƙarfin duka abokan ciniki da samfuran ciki.Kudin babban birnin Texas Instruments ya kasance kusan lebur.TI yana shirin kashe kusan dala biliyan 5 a kowace shekara har zuwa 2026, da farko don sabon kayan sa a Sherman, Texas.STMicroelectronics zai rage yawan kashe kudi da kashi 39%, yayin da Infineon Technologies zai rage da 3%.
Samsung, TSMC, da Intel, manyan masu kashe kuɗi uku, ana tsammanin za su yi lissafin kashi 57% na kashe kuɗin masana'antar semiconductor nan da 2024.
Menene matakin da ya dace na kashe kuɗi dangane da kasuwar semiconductor?Canjin canjin yanayin kasuwar semiconductor sananne ne.A cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata, yawan ci gaban shekara ya ragu daga kashi 46% a 1984 zuwa kashi 32 cikin 100 a shekarar 2001. Yayin da sauyin masana'antu ya ragu da balaga, yawan bunƙasa ya kai kashi 26% cikin shekaru biyar da suka wuce.Ya ragu da 12% a cikin 2021 da 12% a cikin 2019. Kamfanonin Semiconductor suna buƙatar tsara ƙarfin su na shekaru masu zuwa.Gina sabon fab ɗin yana ɗaukar kusan shekaru biyu, tare da ƙarin lokacin da ake buƙata don tsarawa da kuɗi.Sakamakon haka, adadin kashe kuɗin da ake kashewa a kasuwar semiconductor ya bambanta sosai, kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa.
2--- Silicon Carbide: Zuwa wani sabon zamanin wafers
Matsakaicin kashe kuɗi na semiconductor zuwa girman kasuwa ya tashi daga babban 34% zuwa ƙarancin 12%.Matsakaicin matsakaicin shekaru biyar ya faɗi tsakanin 28% da 18%.A cikin duka tsawon lokacin daga 1980 zuwa 2023, kashe kuɗi na babban birnin ya kai kashi 23% na kasuwar semiconductor.Duk da sauye-sauye, yanayin dogon lokaci na wannan rabo ya kasance daidai da daidaito.Dangane da haɓakar haɓakar kasuwa mai ƙarfi da raguwar kashe kuɗi, muna tsammanin wannan rabon zai ragu daga 32% a cikin 2023 zuwa 27% a cikin 2024.
Yawancin tsinkaya suna hasashen ci gaban kasuwar semiconductor a cikin kewayon 13% zuwa 20% don 2024. Hasashen mu na semiconductor yana hasashen haɓakar 18%.Idan 2024 ya yi aiki mai ƙarfi kamar yadda ake tsammani, kamfanoni na iya haɓaka tsare-tsaren kashe kuɗi na babban birnin kan lokaci.Za mu iya sa ran ganin ingantattun sauye-sauye a cikin kashe kuɗin babban kuɗaɗen semiconductor a cikin 2024.
Lokacin aikawa: Afrilu-08-2024