Daga 2021 zuwa 2022, an sami ci gaba cikin sauri a cikin kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya sakamakon buƙatu na musamman sakamakon barkewar COVID-19. Koyaya, yayin da buƙatun musamman da cutar ta COVID-19 ta haifar ta ƙare a ƙarshen rabin 2022 kuma ta faɗa cikin ɗayan koma bayan tattalin arziki mafi muni a tarihi a cikin 2023.
Koyaya, ana sa ran Babban koma bayan tattalin arziki zai ƙare a cikin 2023, tare da samun cikakkiyar murmurewa a wannan shekara (2024).
A zahiri, kallon jigilar kwata-kwata na kwata-kwata a cikin nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan nau'ikan kwata-kwata na kwata-kwata na kwata-kwata, Logic ya riga ya zarce kololuwar da bukatu na musamman na COVID-19 ya haifar kuma ya kafa sabon babban tarihi. Bugu da ƙari, Mos Micro da Analog suna iya kaiwa ga matsayi na tarihi a cikin 2024, saboda raguwar da ƙarshen buƙatun COVID-19 ya haifar ba shi da mahimmanci (Hoto 1).
Daga cikin su, Mos Memory ya sami raguwa mai yawa, sannan aka kasa kasa a farkon kwata (Q1) na 2023 kuma ya fara tafiya zuwa farfadowa. Koyaya, da alama har yanzu yana buƙatar ɗimbin lokaci don isa ga kololuwar buƙatun COVID-19 na musamman. Koyaya, idan Mos Memory ya zarce kololuwar sa, jimlar jigilar na'urori ba shakka za su sami sabon matsayi na tarihi. A ganina, idan wannan ya faru, ana iya cewa kasuwar semiconductor ta farfado sosai.
Koyaya, duban canje-canjen jigilar kayayyaki na semiconductor, a bayyane yake cewa wannan ra'ayi kuskure ne. Wannan shi ne saboda, yayin da jigilar Mos Memory, wanda ke farfadowa, ya murmure sosai, jigilar Logic, wanda ya kai matsayi na tarihi, har yanzu yana kan ƙananan matakan. A takaice dai, don farfado da kasuwar semiconductor na duniya da gaske, jigilar kayayyaki na sassan dabaru dole ne su karu sosai.
Don haka, a cikin wannan labarin, za mu bincika jigilar semiconductor da adadi don nau'ikan semiconductor iri-iri da jimlar semiconductor. Na gaba, za mu yi amfani da bambanci tsakanin jigilar Logic da jigilar kaya a matsayin misali don nuna yadda jigilar TSMC na wafers ke raguwa a baya duk da saurin murmurewa. Bugu da ƙari, za mu yi hasashe kan dalilin da yasa wannan bambance-bambancen ya kasance kuma muna ba da shawarar cewa za a iya jinkirta dawo da kasuwar semiconductor na duniya har zuwa 2025.
A ƙarshe, bayyanar dawo da kasuwar semiconductor a halin yanzu shine "haɗari" wanda NVIDIA's GPUs ya haifar, waɗanda ke da tsada sosai. Sabili da haka, da alama kasuwar semiconductor ba za ta murmure sosai ba har sai kafuwar kamar TSMC sun kai cikakken iya aiki kuma jigilar kayayyaki ta kai sabon matsayi na tarihi.
Ƙimar jigilar kayayyaki na Semiconductor da Ƙididdiga
Hoto na 2 yana kwatanta abubuwan da ke faruwa a ƙimar jigilar kaya da yawa don nau'ikan semiconductor iri-iri da kuma duk kasuwar semiconductor.
Adadin jigilar Mos Micro ya kai kololuwa a cikin kwata na hudu na 2021, ya ragu a farkon kwata na 2023, kuma ya fara murmurewa. A gefe guda, adadin jigilar kayayyaki bai nuna wani canji mai mahimmanci ba, wanda ya rage kusan layi ɗaya daga kashi na uku zuwa kwata na huɗu na 2023, tare da raguwa kaɗan.
Darajar jigilar Mos Memory ta fara raguwa sosai daga kwata na biyu na 2022, ta ragu a farkon kwata na 2023, kuma ta fara tashi, amma kawai ta murmure zuwa kusan kashi 40% na ƙimar kololuwa a cikin kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar. A halin yanzu, adadin jigilar kayayyaki ya murmure zuwa kusan kashi 94% na matakin kololuwar. A takaice dai, ana ɗaukar ƙimar amfani da masana'anta na masana'antun ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya yana gabatowa da cikakken ƙarfi. Tambayar ita ce nawa farashin DRAM da NAND za su karu.
Yawan jigilar kayayyaki na Logic ya kai kololuwa a cikin kwata na biyu na 2022, ya ragu a farkon kwata na 2023, sannan ya sake komawa, ya kai sabon matsayi na tarihi a cikin kwata na hudu na wannan shekarar. A gefe guda, ƙimar jigilar kayayyaki ta haura a cikin kwata na biyu na 2022, sannan ta ƙi zuwa kusan kashi 65% na ƙimar kololuwa a cikin kwata na uku na 2023 kuma ta kasance daidai a cikin kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar. A takaice dai, akwai babban sabani tsakanin halayyar darajar jigilar kaya da adadin jigilar kaya a cikin Logic.
Yawan jigilar kayayyaki na Analog ya kai kololuwa a cikin kwata na uku na 2022, ya ragu a cikin kwata na biyu na 2023, kuma tun daga lokacin ya kasance karko. A gefe guda, bayan kololuwa a cikin kwata na uku na 2022, ƙimar jigilar kayayyaki ta ci gaba da raguwa har zuwa kwata na huɗu na 2023.
A ƙarshe, ƙimar jigilar kayayyaki gabaɗaya ta ragu sosai daga kwata na biyu na 2022, ƙasa a cikin kwata na farko na 2023, kuma ta fara tashi, tana murmurewa zuwa kusan kashi 96% na ƙimar kololuwa a cikin kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar. A gefe guda, adadin jigilar kayayyaki shima ya ragu sosai daga kwata na biyu na 2022, ya ragu a cikin kwata na farko na 2023, amma tun daga lokacin ya kasance mai laushi, kusan kashi 75% na ƙimar koli.
Daga abin da ke sama, yana bayyana cewa Mos Memory shine yankin matsala idan an yi la'akari da adadin jigilar kaya kawai, saboda kawai ya dawo zuwa kusan 40% na ƙimar kololuwa. Koyaya, ɗaukar hangen nesa mai fa'ida, zamu iya ganin cewa Logic babban damuwa ne, saboda duk da kaiwa ga kololuwar tarihi a yawan jigilar kayayyaki, ƙimar jigilar kaya ta tsaya cak a kusan kashi 65% na ƙimar kololuwa. Tasirin wannan bambance-bambance tsakanin adadin jigilar kayayyaki da ƙimar Logic da alama yana ƙara zuwa gabaɗayan filin semiconductor.
A taƙaice, murmurewa kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya ya dogara da ko farashin Mos Memory ya karu da kuma ko adadin jigilar kayayyaki ya karu sosai. Tare da DRAM da farashin NAND suna ci gaba da tashi, babban batun zai ƙara yawan jigilar kayayyaki na raka'a Logic.
Na gaba, za mu yi bayanin halayen yawan jigilar kayayyaki na TSMC da jigilar wafer don nuna bambanci musamman tsakanin adadin jigilar kayayyaki da kuma jigilar wafer.
TSMC Kwata-kwata Darajar jigilar kayayyaki da Kayan Wafer
Hoto na 3 yana kwatanta lalacewar tallace-tallace na TSMC ta hanyar kumburi da yanayin tallace-tallace na 7nm da sama da matakai a cikin kwata na huɗu na 2023.
Matsayin TSMC 7nm kuma sama da haka azaman nodes masu ci gaba. A cikin kwata na huɗu na 2023, 7nm ya ƙidaya 17%, 5nm don 35%, da 3nm don 15%, jimlar 67% na nodes masu ci gaba. Bugu da kari, tallace-tallace na kwata-kwata na nodes na ci gaba yana karuwa tun kwata na farko na 2021, sun sami raguwa sau ɗaya a cikin kwata na huɗu na 2022, amma sun ragu kuma sun fara haɓakawa a cikin kwata na biyu na 2023, sun kai sabon matsayi na tarihi kashi na hudu na wannan shekarar.
A wasu kalmomi, idan kun kalli ayyukan tallace-tallace na ci gaba na nodes, TSMC yana aiki da kyau. Don haka, yaya game da jimlar tallace-tallace na kwata-kwata na TSMC da jigilar kaya (Hoto na 4)?
Taswirar ƙimar jigilar kayayyaki na TSMC kwata-kwata da jigilar wafer sun yi daidai da juna. Ya yi kololuwa yayin kumfa na IT na 2000, ya ƙi bayan girgizar Lehman na 2008, kuma ya ci gaba da raguwa bayan fashe kumfa na ƙwaƙwalwar 2018.
Koyaya, halayen bayan kololuwar buƙatu na musamman a cikin kwata na uku na 2022 ya bambanta. Darajar jigilar kayayyaki ta kai dala biliyan 20.2, sannan ta ki sosai amma ta fara komawa baya bayan da ta ragu da dala biliyan 15.7 a kwata na biyu na 2023, wanda ya kai dala biliyan 19.7 a kwata na hudu na wannan shekarar, wanda shine kashi 97% na kimar kololuwar.
A gefe guda, jigilar wafer kwata-kwata ya kai wafers miliyan 3.97 a cikin kwata na uku na 2022, sannan ya ragu, ya ragu a kan wafers miliyan 2.92 a cikin kwata na biyu na 2023, amma ya kasance a kwance bayan haka. Ko da a cikin kwata na huɗu na wannan shekarar, kodayake adadin wafers ɗin da aka aika ya ragu sosai daga kololuwa, har yanzu ya kasance a kan wafers miliyan 2.96, raguwar wafers sama da miliyan 1 daga kololuwar.
Mafi na kowa semiconductor samar da TSMC shine Logic. Tallace-tallacen TSMC na kashi huɗu cikin huɗu na 2023 na nodes na ci gaba ya kai sabon babban tarihi, tare da gabaɗayan tallace-tallacen yana murmurewa zuwa 97% na kololuwar tarihi. Koyaya, jigilar wafer na kwata-kwata ya kasance sama da wafers miliyan 1 ƙasa da lokacin kololuwar lokacin. A takaice dai, ƙimar amfani da masana'anta gabaɗaya ta TSMC kusan kashi 75 ne kawai.
Dangane da kasuwar semiconductor na duniya gabaɗaya, jigilar kayayyaki ta Logic sun ragu zuwa kusan kashi 65% na kololuwar yayin lokacin buƙatu na musamman na COVID-19. A koyaushe, jigilar wafer na TSMC na kwata-kwata ya ragu da sama da wafers miliyan 1 daga kololuwa, tare da ƙimar amfani da masana'anta kusan kusan 75%.
Ana sa ran gaba, don kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya don murmurewa da gaske, jigilar kayayyaki na Logic yana buƙatar haɓaka sosai, kuma don cimma wannan, ƙimar amfani da kafuwar da TSMC ke jagoranta dole ne ya kusanci cikakken ƙarfi.
To, yaushe ne wannan zai faru?
Hasashen Hasashen Amfani na Manyan Kafa
A ranar 14 ga Disamba, 2023, kamfanin bincike na Taiwan TrendForce ya gudanar da taron karawa juna sani na "Mayar da hankali kan Masana'antu" a Otal din Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington. A taron karawa juna sani, manazarta TrendForce Joanna Chiao ta tattauna "Tsarin Duniya na TSMC da Kasuwar Kasuwar Kasuwa ta Semiconductor na 2024." Daga cikin wasu batutuwa, Joanna Chiao yayi magana game da tsinkayar ƙimar amfani da tushe (Hoto
Yaushe jigilar Logic zai ƙaru?
Shin wannan 8% yana da mahimmanci ko maras muhimmanci? Kodayake wannan tambaya ce da dabara, ko da ta 2026, sauran 92% na wafers har yanzu za a cinye su ta kwakwalwan kwakwalwar da ba AI semiconductor ba. Yawancin waɗannan za su zama kwakwalwan Logic. Don haka, don jigilar kayayyaki na Logic don haɓakawa kuma don manyan kafuwar da TSMC ke jagoranta don isa ga cikakkiyar ƙarfi, buƙatar na'urorin lantarki kamar wayowin komai da ruwan, PC, da sabobin dole ne su haɓaka.
A taƙaice, dangane da halin da ake ciki yanzu, ban yi imani da cewa semiconductor AI kamar NVIDIA's GPUs za su zama masu cetonmu ba. Don haka, an yi imanin cewa kasuwar semiconductor ta duniya ba za ta sake farfadowa ba har sai 2024, ko ma a jinkirta har zuwa 2025.
Koyaya, akwai wata yuwuwar (kyakkyawan fata) wanda zai iya juyar da wannan hasashen.
Ya zuwa yanzu, duk semiconductor na AI da aka bayyana suna magana ne akan semiconductor da aka shigar a cikin sabobin. Koyaya, yanzu akwai yanayin aiwatar da sarrafa AI akan tashoshi (gefuna) kamar kwamfutoci na sirri, wayoyin hannu, da allunan.
Misalai sun haɗa da AI PC na Intel da aka tsara da kuma yunƙurin Samsung na ƙirƙirar wayowin komai da ruwan AI. Idan waɗannan sun zama sananne (a wasu kalmomi, idan ƙirƙira ta faru), kasuwar semiconductor AI za ta faɗaɗa cikin sauri. A gaskiya ma, kamfanin bincike na Amurka Gartner ya annabta cewa a ƙarshen 2024, jigilar kayayyaki na wayoyin hannu na AI za su kai raka'a miliyan 240, kuma jigilar AI PC za ta kai raka'a miliyan 54.5 (don tunani kawai). Idan wannan tsinkaya ta zo gaskiya, buƙatun dabaru na yankan-baki zai ƙaru (dangane da ƙimar jigilar kaya da yawa), kuma ƙimar amfani da kafuwar kamar TSMC zai tashi. Bugu da ƙari, buƙatar MPUs da ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya kuma za su yi girma da sauri.
A wasu kalmomi, lokacin da irin wannan duniyar ta zo, AI semiconductor ya kamata ya zama ainihin mai ceto. Don haka, daga yanzu, Ina so in mai da hankali kan abubuwan da ke faruwa na gefen AI semiconductor.
Lokacin aikawa: Afrilu-08-2024