A ranar Laraba, Shugaba Biden ya sanar da yarjejeniyar samar wa Intel dala biliyan 8.5 a matsayin tallafi kai tsaye da kuma rancen dala biliyan 11 a karkashin Dokar CHIPS da Kimiyya. Intel za ta yi amfani da wannan tallafin don samar da kayayyakinta na wafer a Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico, da Oregon. Kamar yadda aka ruwaito a cikin wasiƙar labarai ta Disamba 2023, Dokar CHIPS ta samar da jimillar dala biliyan 52.7 a matsayin tallafi ga masana'antar semiconductor ta Amurka, gami da dala biliyan 39 a matsayin tallafi ga masana'antu. Kafin a raba Intel, Dokar CHIPS ta riga ta ware jimillar dala biliyan 1.7 ga GlobalFoundries, Microchip Technology, da BAE Systems, a cewar Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta Semiconductor (SIA).
Ci gaban da aka samu kan samar da kuɗaɗen gudanarwa a ƙarƙashin Dokar CHIPS ya yi jinkiri, inda aka sanar da rabon farko sama da shekara guda bayan amincewa da shi. Saboda jinkirin da ake samu wajen rarrabawa, an jinkirta wasu manyan ayyukan masana'antar kera na'urorin semiconductor a Amurka. TSMC ta kuma lura da matsaloli wajen neman ƙwararrun ma'aikatan gini. Intel ta danganta jinkirin da wani ɓangare na rage tallace-tallace.
Wasu ƙasashe kuma sun ware kuɗi don haɓaka samar da semiconductor. A watan Satumba na 2023, Tarayyar Turai ta zartar da Dokar Kwakwalwar Turai, wacce ta tanadi Yuro biliyan 430 (kimanin dala biliyan 470) a cikin jarin gwamnati da na masu zaman kansu ga masana'antar semiconductor. A watan Nuwamba na 2023, Japan ta ware ¥ tiriliyan 2 (kimanin dala biliyan 13) don kera semiconductor. Taiwan ta zartar da doka a watan Janairu na 2024 don samar da abubuwan ƙarfafa haraji ga kamfanonin semiconductor. A watan Maris na 2023, Koriya ta Kudu ta zartar da doka don samar da abubuwan ƙarfafa haraji ga fasahohin dabaru, gami da semiconductor. Ana sa ran China za ta kafa asusun dala biliyan 40 da gwamnati ke tallafawa don tallafawa masana'antar semiconductor ɗinta.
Menene hasashen kashe kuɗin jarin masana'antar semiconductor (CapEx) a wannan shekarar? Dokar CHIPS tana da nufin ƙarfafa kashe kuɗin jari, amma yawancin tasirin ba zai bayyana ba sai bayan 2024. A bara, kasuwar semiconductor ta faɗi da kashi 8.2% cikin takaici, wanda ya sa kamfanoni da yawa suka ɗauki hanyar taka tsantsan don kashe kuɗin jari a 2024. Mun kiyasta cewa jimillar CapEx na semiconductor a 2023 ya kai dala biliyan 169, raguwar kashi 7% idan aka kwatanta da 2022. Muna hasashen raguwar kashi 2% a CapEx a 2024.
Tare da farfaɗowar kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya da kuma ƙaruwar da ake sa ran samu daga sabbin aikace-aikace kamar fasahar kere-kere ta wucin gadi, ana sa ran manyan kamfanonin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya za su ƙara yawan kuɗaɗen jari a shekarar 2024. Samsung na shirin ci gaba da kashe kuɗi mai sauƙi a shekarar 2024 akan dala biliyan 37 amma ba su rage kashe kuɗaɗen jari a shekarar 2023 ba. Micron Technology da SK Hynix sun rage kashe kuɗaɗen jari sosai a shekarar 2023 kuma suna shirin haɓaka lambobi biyu a shekarar 2024.
Babban kamfanin hakar ma'adinai, TSMC, yana shirin kashe kimanin dala biliyan 28 zuwa dala biliyan 32 a shekarar 2024, tare da matsakaicin dala biliyan 30, raguwar kashi 6% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2023. SMIC na shirin ci gaba da rage kashe kudaden jari, yayin da UMC ke shirin karuwa da kashi 10%. GlobalFoundries na sa ran rage kashe kudaden jari da kashi 61% a shekarar 2024 amma za ta kara kashe kudi a cikin shekaru masu zuwa tare da gina sabuwar masana'anta a Malta, New York.
Daga cikin Masana'antun Na'urorin Haɗaka (IDMs), Intel na shirin ƙara yawan kuɗaɗen jari da kashi 2% a shekarar 2024 zuwa dala biliyan 26.2. Intel zai ƙara yawan ƙarfin abokan cinikin masana'antar samar da kayayyaki da kayayyakin cikin gida. Kuɗaɗen jarin Texas Instruments har yanzu ba su kai kololuwa ba. TI na shirin kashe kusan dala biliyan 5 a kowace shekara har zuwa 2026, musamman don sabon kamfaninsa a Sherman, Texas. STMicroelectronics zai rage kashe kuɗi da kashi 39%, yayin da Infineon Technologies zai ragu da kashi 3%.
Ana sa ran Samsung, TSMC, da Intel, manyan kamfanoni uku da suka fi kashe kudi, za su samar da kashi 57% na kudaden da masana'antar semiconductor ke kashewa nan da shekarar 2024.
Menene matakin da ya dace na kashe jari idan aka kwatanta da kasuwar semiconductor? An san yadda kasuwar semiconductor ke canzawa. A cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata, yawan karuwar shekara-shekara ya ragu daga kashi 46% a shekarar 1984 zuwa kashi 32% a shekarar 2001. Duk da cewa canjin masana'antar ya ragu da balaga, yawan karuwarsa ya kai kashi 26% a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata. Ya ragu da kashi 12% a shekarar 2021 da kuma kashi 12% a shekarar 2019. Kamfanonin Semiconductor suna buƙatar tsara ƙarfinsu na shekaru masu zuwa. Gina sabuwar masana'anta yawanci yana ɗaukar kimanin shekaru biyu, tare da ƙarin lokaci da ake buƙata don tsarawa da kuɗaɗen gudanarwa. Sakamakon haka, rabon kuɗin jarin semiconductor ga kasuwar semiconductor ya bambanta sosai, kamar yadda aka nuna a ƙasa.
2---Silicon Carbide: Zuwa ga sabon zamani na wafers
Rabon kashe jarin semiconductor zuwa girman kasuwa ya kama daga babban kashi 34% zuwa ƙasa da kashi 12%. Matsakaicin rabon shekaru biyar ya faɗi tsakanin kashi 28% zuwa 18%. A tsawon lokacin daga 1980 zuwa 2023, kashe jari ya kai kashi 23% na kasuwar semiconductor. Duk da sauyi, yanayin wannan rabon na dogon lokaci ya kasance daidai. Dangane da ci gaban kasuwa mai ƙarfi da ake sa ran samu da raguwar kashe jari, muna sa ran wannan rabon zai ragu daga kashi 32% a 2023 zuwa kashi 27% a 2024.
Yawancin hasashen masana kimiyya sun yi hasashen ci gaban kasuwar semiconductor tsakanin kashi 13% zuwa 20% na shekarar 2024. Bayanan sirrin semiconductor ɗinmu sun yi hasashen ci gaban kashi 18%. Idan shekarar 2024 ta yi aiki kamar yadda ake tsammani, kamfanoni na iya ƙara tsare-tsaren kashe jarinsu akan lokaci. Za mu iya tsammanin ganin canje-canje masu kyau a cikin kashe jarin semiconductor a shekarar 2024.
Lokacin Saƙo: Afrilu-08-2024